The Economy Says We're Fine. But Our Lights Are Off.
Yesterday, a family texted me in tears—their electricity had been shut off. My friend Amy, a brilliant artist and mother, can’t afford rent. And my own business, One Day Bakery, a small artisan bread company rooted in Mediterranean sourdough and community care, now makes one-third of what it used to. We’re barely holding onto our commercial space. This isn’t just a downturn. It’s a quiet unraveling.
Living Costs Are Crushing Us
In 2025, inflation and tariffs have pushed prices up across the board. Essentials like rent, utilities, and ingredients have become unpredictable burdens. According to the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, over 50% of small businesses report that inflation is their top concern, and many are relying on personal credit just to stay afloat..
For small food businesses like mine, the cost of flour, olive oil, and packaging has surged. Customers are spending less, and community events—once a reliable source of joy and income—are quieter. We’ve had to cut back on staff hours, reduce our festival presence, and rethink every menu item.
In the rural outskirts of McKinney, I’ve seen five businesses close in the past four months—just people I know. A beloved coffee shop, a family-run repair service, a small music studio. How many more have shuttered without a whisper?
Why Do Official Stats Say the Economy Is Fine?
The Dow Jones Industrial Average tracks 30 major corporations. The S&P 500 includes 500 large companies. These indexes don’t measure the lived reality of small businesses, freelancers, or families on the edge. They don’t reflect the bakery that can’t afford flour, or the family whose lights went out last night.
The Federal Reserve’s 2025 Small Business Credit Survey shows that while some owners report optimism, it’s often based on hope—not stability. Many are betting on seasonal recovery or policy relief, not actual growth. Optimism is often a survival strategy, not a sign of health. And yet, headlines still say “The Economy Is Resilient.” But resilient for whom?
Who’s Measuring the Economy—and Who Gets Left Out?
Most U.S. economic data comes from agencies like the Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). These institutions are designed to be impartial and methodologically rigorous. They conduct surveys like the Economic Census and GDP reports, which help shape national policy.
But here’s the catch: how that data is interpreted, emphasized, or ignored is often shaped by political and corporate interests. Media outlets may highlight stock market gains while skipping over small business closures. Policymakers may cite job growth while overlooking wage stagnation or rural decline.
You can trust the numbers—but you also have to ask: which numbers are being shown, and which ones are being left out?
“Economic surveys are conducted by agencies like the Census Bureau and BEA—designed to be impartial. But the way their results are framed often leaves out the most vulnerable. When the Dow rises, headlines cheer. But when five small businesses close in McKinney, no one reports it. That’s not a data failure—it’s a narrative failure.”
Small Businesses Are the Backbone—So Why Are We Ignored?
Small businesses make up 99.9% of all U.S. businesses and employ nearly half of the private workforce. We are the ones who feed neighborhoods, create local jobs, and offer human connection. We are the ones who show up at festivals, sponsor school events, and remember your name when you walk in the door
Yet we’re often left out of economic narratives. Policy decisions are made based on metrics that exclude us. Relief programs are designed for scale, not nuance. And closures—especially in rural areas—are underreported, especially among sole proprietors and informal operations.
If the economy doesn’t account for us, it’s not measuring the economy at all.
A Personal Reflection
I’m writing this not just as a founder, but as a neighbor. As someone who sees the beauty in shared effort and the pain in quiet collapse. I invite you to question the numbers. To ask who’s missing from the charts.
And to remember: behind every “small” business is a big story of resilience, creativity, and care.
Ralitsa Holub
10/29/25
